Has Bitcoin Peaked? Or Is the Real Bull Run Just Starting?

We’re at a pivotal moment in the crypto market. Bitcoin is flirting with all-time highs, institutions are accumulating, and trillions in sidelined capital are preparing to deploy. But the big question remains:

Has the cycle top already formed — or is the exponential phase of the bull market still ahead?

In this blog, I’ll walk you through the key signals I’m watching — and why I believe the peak is not in yet.

Bitcoin and Total Market Cap Are Still Well Below Historical Top Signals

Let’s start with the Bitcoin Power Law model. Historically, Bitcoin cycle peaks occur when price deviates more than +70% above its long-term power law trendline.

📉 Current deviation? Just 5.8%.

📈 Cycle high this time? +21.2% in Dec 2024.

We’re nowhere near the extreme overvaluation levels that marked previous cycle tops.

And it’s not just Bitcoin.

When we examine the Total Crypto Market Cap’s deviation from its power law trend, we’re still trading at around -50% below fair value. Even at the local high in December 2024, the deviation only reached -2%. In contrast, previous cycle peaks occurred when this metric surged to +70% or higher, making it clear we’re nowhere near historical top conditions.

👉 (Both interactive charts are available on our platform and update daily.)

Bitcoin Is Near ATH While the U.S. Is Still Tightening

It’s extraordinary that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are near all-time highs, even though U.S. interest rates remain elevated at 4.5% and quantitative tightening is still in effect.

🔎 Historically, markets explode higher only after the Fed begins cutting and ends QT. If this is how markets behave before easing… imagine the second half of 2025.

Debt Spiral = Inevitable Monetary Expansion

The U.S. is trapped in an unsustainable debt spiral — a reality I’ve highlighted repeatedly on Twitter over the past two years. There’s simply no way to service this debt without eventually devaluing it.

As macro analyst Lyn Alden puts it: “Nothing stops this train.”

That means one thing: hard assets like Bitcoin are set to benefit enormously in the long term. 📈

7.4 Trillion Sidelined — Ready to Deploy

Right now, $7.4 trillion in U.S. money market funds is sitting on the sidelines — waiting for clarity.

📌 Clarity on:

• Tariffs

• End of quantitative tightening

• This year Fed rate cuts

Once that happens, this capital will begin moving aggressively into risk-on assets like crypto — chasing yield and growth. And that transition is close. Especially with stablecoins increasing awareness of crypto.

Bitcoin Risk Remains Low — A Rare Opportunity

Our proprietary Bitcoin Risk Metric currently sits at just 28.67%, a level that historically signals a strong accumulation level when we are in a bull run.

With potential catalysts like:

• Lower CPI in June & July

• Fed rate cuts

• Regulatory clarity

• Institutional entry

…Bitcoin is poised for a major leg up. 📊 (Our Risk Model updates daily on the platform — make sure to track it.)

Institutions Are Quietly Buying

Despite the noise, institutions are accumulating aggressively. On-chain data shows clear inflows into institutional wallets — and this behavior tends to lead price action, not follow it. The number of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC continues to rise steadily

We’ve seen this before: smart money gets in early, retail joins at the peak.

Watch June & July CPI — Everything Depends on It

The next big catalyst? Inflation data.

When the U.S. announced new tariffs, many businesses stocked up ahead of implementation — meaning the true impact on consumer prices will appear in June and July.

If inflation remains tame, the Fed will be in a position to cut. That’s the moment markets will go risk-on — and crypto could move fast.

Altcoins could surge. Bitcoin could spike toward $140K. This is the window we’re watching.

In terms of accumulation zones, I’m closely monitoring two key levels: the Bull Market Support Band — currently around $97K and rising — and the $100K region, which aligns with both Bitcoin’s power law fair value and a major psychological milestone. As long as Bitcoin’s risk remains low, I’m comfortable dollar-cost averaging in these areas.

Conclusion: Stay Ahead of the Curve

The data is clear: this cycle hasn’t peaked. Not even close.

We haven’t seen the typical signs of a top, and the conditions for a true exponential move are falling into place. The exponential phase may begin as early as late summer, if inflation data cooperates.

🧠 Smart money is positioning now — not when it’s obvious.

✅ Track all key metrics — including our interactive Bitcoin and altcoins Risk Model, Power Law Charts, and Cycle Deviation Analysis — directly on our platform. They update daily so you can make decisions based on real-time market dynamics.