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Bitcoin: This Summer Might Be the Most Pivotal One for Decades to Come

May 13

3 min read

As we approach summer, Bitcoin is hovering just above $100,000 — a major psychological milestone. Historically, summer tends to be a slow season for markets. With traders on holiday and volume declining, we often see temporary corrections. But if we are truly in the midst of a bull run, those corrections can present the best accumulation opportunities before the next explosive move.


In this blog, I’ll break down why I believe this summer could set the stage for generational gains — and how I plan to position myself.


🧠 Why This Moment Is So Unique


Bitcoin just crossed $100K, and yet public interest in it is near record lows.


Let that sink in: we’re hitting all-time highs without retail investors. Metrics like Google Trends clearly show that interest in Bitcoin is far below the levels we saw in 2021. This means that the current rally is being driven almost entirely by institutions and whales — a significant structural shift.


If retail comes back — and I believe they will — it could ignite the next parabolic leg up. Retail investors have historically been the fuel behind crypto bull markets. And institutions? They’re just getting started.



🏦 What Will Bring Retail Back?


The answer is simple: the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.


When that happens, global liquidity will rise again. Governments will move from fighting inflation to avoiding recession. The result? A massive bid for risk assets — including crypto.


We’ve seen this movie before. As soon as financial conditions ease, capital floods back into speculative markets. With Bitcoin already above $100K, liquidity injections could send it into its exponential phase (some countries have already started).



📈 The $4.7 Trillion Fair Value — and the Road to $25 Trillion


Last year, I introduced a crypto market growth equation that models the fair value of the total crypto market cap using long-term adoption trends.


When markets crashed in March, the total market cap bounced exactly at the –2 standard deviation line — validating the strength of this model. Right now, the market is gravitating toward its fair value at $4.7 trillion.


But the bigger picture is even more exciting: If adoption continues on its current trajectory, the crypto market could exceed $25 trillion by the end of this decade.


🧪 All charts and models mentioned here are updated daily and available on the Lab4Crypto platform.


🔬 Detecting Market Overheating with Quantile Power Laws


To help identify the end of this cycle, I’ve expanded on the Total Crypto Market Power Law by introducing a hybrid quantile regression model.


This model reveals when the market is entering overheated territory. Here’s how it works:

• Below the 40th percentile: Power law

• Above the 40th percentile: Exponential decay


Once the total market cap enters the salmon colour zone (above the 90th percentile), I plan to aggressively take profits. Historically, this is the zone where FOMO peaks and drawdowns of 80–95% follow soon after.



If you’re a serious investor, now is the time to study these models and prepare an exit plan — before the herd arrives.


📅 My Summer Strategy


Here’s my base case for the months ahead:

  • June–July: I expect market weakness and possible 15–20% pullbacks.

  • August onward: If the macro setup plays out (rate cuts, liquidity return), the crypto market could resume its explosive growth.


During any dips, I will accumulate based on risk tolerance, particularly focusing on BTC and a few high-conviction altcoins.


🎯 My Cycle Targets

  • Bitcoin: Very high probability of exceeding $180K this cycle

  • Altcoin Season: Likely to last 3–5 months, starting as Bitcoin cools off


🧠 Final Thoughts


We are approaching a rare moment in history:

  • Bitcoin is rallying without retail

  • Liquidity is about to return

  • Proprietary metrics suggest we’re not yet near the top


If you want to navigate this market like a pro—not a gambler—study the signals, use the models, and prepare your exit strategy before FOMO blinds the crowd.


Check out all the live charts and indicators on Lab4crypto.com — and prepare for what could be the most important summer in crypto history.

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Lab4crypto does not offer investment advice or brokerage services to its users. It is the responsibility of each individual user to assess whether an investment, investment strategy, or transaction is suitable for their personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance. Lab4crypto strongly recommends that users seek the advice of their legal or tax professionals for guidance on their specific situation.
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