Bitcoin Enters Summer: What It Means — and How to Position Yourself

After breaking its all-time high earlier this year, Bitcoin has now entered June with a mild pullback. In this blog, I want to re-emphasize what I’ve been saying consistently over the past four weeks — and help you prepare for what may lie ahead.

If you’ve been following my posts or videos, you already know my view: I’m expecting a period of summer weakness in crypto. There are two key reasons behind this:

1. Ongoing macro uncertainty, especially around tariffs.

2. A firm Federal Reserve, which so far has shown little willingness to cut interest rates soon.

Summer Months = Historically Weak for Bitcoin

Take a look at Bitcoin’s monthly returns — you’ll see a clear seasonal pattern. Historically, August and September are among the weakest months for BTC. While this doesn’t guarantee a dip, it’s a signal that cannot be ignored.

Yet, there’s a crucial dynamic to watch: Central banks globally are shifting, and several (including the EU, China, and the UK) have already started cutting interest rates more aggressively than the U.S.

September Rate Cut Expectations: The Turning Point?

Markets currently project the first Fed rate cut in September. Since markets are forward-looking, any actual price upside could begin before that cut is officially announced.

Remember: the Fed often telegraphs its moves ahead of time. In their last report, they hinted at two rate cuts in 2025, depending on incoming data.

If that scenario unfolds — with more liquidity entering the system — we could see the kind of explosive upside that historically follows policy shifts. I personally expect Bitcoin to reach above $180K in Q4 2025, guided by the Bitcoin Power Law Model, where the +2 standard deviation line currently sits around $200K. Historically, this green line has acted as a magnet during cycle tops.

Crucially, none of the major indicators I track — including Deviation from Power Law, FFMVRV, and NUPL — have triggered signals that suggest the top is in. You can explore these metrics in detail on our platform, where each one is explained through videos and interactive charts.

Altcoin Season: Not Here Yet, But Getting Close

You’ll often hear that “altcoin season is here” after a few strong weeks of performance. But zoom out, and you’ll see that Bitcoin has been heavily outperforming altcoins over the last three years.

Still, I believe altcoin season is approaching — and it could be one of the most explosive yet.

This is the phase when retail FOMO kicks in. Outrageous valuations follow… and often, devastating corrections come soon after. But for those who manage risk well, this is where life-changing returns are made.

I expect the total crypto market cap to reach over $11 trillion at the cycle top — compared to the $3.2 trillion we’re at now, that’s a massive upside still ahead.

DeFi: One Sector to Watch Closely

If you’re looking to find outperformers during the next phase, DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is a sector worth researching.

DeFi continues to deliver on its promises: open borrowing, lending, staking, and financial access for all. Despite this, it remains one of the most undervalued sectors in crypto. Today, the DeFi market sits at just $121B — while my fair value model places it above $364B.

This disconnect creates opportunity.

Final Thoughts

We’re heading into a historically weak period — but also into the final consolidation phase before the next major move. Whether you’re a long-term holder or a tactical trader, now is the time to:

✅ Stay patient

✅ Stay informed

✅ Position yourself before the market does

If you’re subscribed to Lab4Crypto, you already have access to the metrics and tools that help you navigate what’s next — with data, not emotions.

Let’s make the second half of 2025 count.