
Yesterday, during Trump’s inauguration, there was market speculation that the president might mention Bitcoin or crypto in his speech or even sign an executive order related to Bitcoin. Neither event occurred, as expected, leading to a market pullback. However, I believe the first executive order indirectly connected with Bitcoin could involve the release of Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht. While this is beyond our control, let’s focus on the data to evaluate where Bitcoin and altcoins stand currently and what February 2025 might bring.
A Promising February for Bitcoin
Historically, February tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin, with a 71.4% probability of positive performance. Notably, all post-halving Februaries (2013, 2017, 2021) have been green. With regulatory shifts on the horizon and the potential establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), February 2025 is shaping up to be promising—especially if Bitcoin holds above the psychological $100,000 level.

Post-Halving Trends and Altcoin Performance
As highlighted in my previous blogs, I stand by my prediction that Bitcoin will reach $180K–$200K in 2025. During post-halving years, there is often a short period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin (3 to 5 months). This occurs as investors’ risk appetite increases, driving speculative gains—and potential losses without proper risk management.
When does altcoin season begin? Quantitatively, we can monitor the Altcoin Season Index. This metric indicates an altcoin season when the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day window. While a brief altcoin rally emerged in December 2024, it was ultimately a fakeout. Currently, we are at a level of 51 (red line), below the 75 (purple line) threshold that signals the start of an altcoin season.
What Could Trigger a Sustained Altcoin Season?
A sustained altcoin season may materialize if:
Bitcoin surges significantly higher in February, or
The Federal Reserve (FED) signals the end of quantitative tightening (QT).
The cessation of QT would provide a favourable environment for risky assets like crypto. Monitoring the FED’s balance sheet for signs of stabilization (i.e., the yellow line levelling off) is crucial. Until this happens, positive news from the U.S. administration—such as support for crypto innovation or BSR—could act as a tailwind for the industry.

Managing Market Volatility with Data
Crypto market volatility can lead to emotional decision-making, but acting on reliable data can help mitigate risks. Currently, Bitcoin and the crypto market appear far from overheated. Here are three models to assess the market out of the many out there:
Price vs. Risk
Bitcoin’s current risk level is at 45%, indicating a healthy market. For context, during previous market tops, this metric exceeded 80%. On January 11, when Bitcoin hit $94K and panic arose that prices would drop below $80K, our quant risk model showed a low 40% risk, signalling no imminent crash. Today, with Bitcoin at $103K, this model remains an invaluable tool for daily decision-making
Deviation from Bitcoin Price Power Law Regression
Bitcoin’s price is currently just 15.57% above its power law regression line. Historically, deviations above 60% have signalled the need to prepare an exit strategy.
Total Crypto Market Cap Deviation from "Fair Value"
The total crypto market cap is 23% below its power law regression line, signalling undervaluation. Historically, values exceeding 60% deviation mark cycle tops. It’s worth noting that the total crypto market cap often peaks months after Bitcoin reaches its cycle top.
Conclusion
February 2025 presents a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and altcoins. While market conditions remain healthy, continuous monitoring of risk models, power law deviations, and macroeconomic factors is essential.
As we say in Greek: “Γνώσις Δύναμις ἐστίν.” (Knowledge is Power). By staying informed and data-driven, we can navigate this volatile market with confidence.
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